November 6, 2018
The changes predicted by Cook are as follows:
- From toss-up to leaning Democrat: Cook moved one race—an open seat in the state of Washington where Representative Dave Reichert (R-8th District) is retiring—to leaning Democrat from toss-up. The district is one of 26 Republican-held congressional seatsthat voted for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Now—in the tightly fought race between Kim Schrier (D) and Dino Rossi (R)—the pundits are predicting that the seat probably will go blue.
- From leaning Republican to toss-up: Two races that Cook originally had sized up as wins for the GOP now are too close to call. According to The Hill’s report, the first is in Pennsylvania, where House Freedom Caucus member Representative Scott Perry (R-4th District) is facing a tough reelection fight against former Harrisburg mayor Linda Thompson, the Democrat. The second is in Georgia’s 6th district, where Republican Representative Karen Handel, who won an expensive special election race in 2017, faces a tough challenge from gun safety advocate Lucy McBath (D).
- From leaning to likely Democrat: Another race that Democrats already are favored to win—a seat now held by the retiring Representative Darrell Issa (R-49th District-California)—is between attorney Mike Levin (D) and former State Assembly member Diane Harkey (R).
- From likely Democrat to leaning Democrat: In Arizona’s 1st District, where incumbent Representative Tom O’Halleran (D) is facing Republican challenger Wendy Rogers, the pundits now say that the incumbent is moving up in the polls. That race has been shifted by Cook from likely Democrat to leaning Democrat.
- In five other races shifted by Cook, the GOP still is favored to win. But the shift shows the races are closer than expected, The Hill reports— and points to the large number of seats the GOP is being forced to defend.
Three races — in Texas’s 6th and 10th Congressional Districts and in West Virginia’s 2nd — moved from solid Republican to likely Republican. Two other races—Florida’s 25th and 6th districts, went from likely Republican to leaning Republican.
The movement is the latest indication that Democrats still have the upper-hand in the House prior to Tuesday’s midterms, when Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to regain control of the lower chamber.
Research contact: @thehill