Posts tagged with "Suffolk University Political Research Center"

Buttigieg to ‘re-Pete’ Iowa surge in New Hampshire primary?

February 10, 2020

Building on his strong showing in Iowa, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has continued his surge among likely Democratic New Hampshire presidential primary voters—putting him in a statistical dead heat against Senator Bernie Sanders, based on results of a Boston Globe/WBZ-TV/Suffolk University poll released on Thursday night.

Former vice president Joe Biden—whose campaign suffered a self-described “gut punch” from a disappointing fourth-place finish in the Hawkeye State—saw another modest dip in his numbers in the latest canvassing.

That put him in fourth place behind Senator Elizabeth Warren in Thursday’s poll, the fourth of seven that the Suffolk University Political Research Center is conducting in the run-up to the nation’s first primary New Hampshire on Tuesday.

Specifically, the Globe reported, Sanders held steady at 24%; with Buttigieg close at his heels at 23%. Biden slipped to 11%, below Warren’s 13%.

 “It looks like Buttigieg’s momentum is continuing, and he’s really going at the heart of Biden’s strength, which is older voters,” David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center told the news outlet.

In Thursday’s poll, which had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.4 percentage points, Buttigieg was at 32% among voters over age 65, Paleologos said, while Biden had dropped to just 15%, and Sanders to 14%.

But the 78-year-old Vermont senator continued to outperform the 38-year-old former Indiana mayor among younger voters—with Sanders garnering 43% among those ages 18 to 35, the Globe said, compared to just 14% for Buttigieg.

If the current trends continue, Paleologos said, Buttigieg could become the candidate to beat in New Hampshire, but a lot can still happen before Tuesday—including a televised Democratic debate Friday night that could shift everyone’s numbers again.

Research contact: @BostonGlobe

Dislike of Trump won’t drive voters to the polls in 2018

April 25, 2018

Like many other things, voting is a habit—and it is one that millions of Americans will never pick up. In fact, many U.S. adults who could cast their ballots stay home during every election. And the 2018 midterms are not likely to be much different, despite broad disapproval of President Donald Trump and discontent with the direction of the country, based on findings of a poll conducted by USA Today/Suffolk University and released on April 23.

Those who regularly skip a trip to the polls cite a broad array of factors driving their lack of participation. Some say they don’t trust politicians, or they don’t think their vote will change anything, the pollsters note. Others say the electoral choices are uninspiring—or they simply don’t have the time and transport to get to their local polling place.

In a nationwide survey of 800 infrequent or unregistered voters, 56% of poll respondents said they felt the country was on the wrong track and nearly 55% rated Trump unfavorably. Yet 83% of those polled said they are “not very likely” or “not at all likely” to vote in 2018.

Fifteen percent of unregistered voters said their vote “doesn’t count” or “won’t make a difference.” Nine percent of registered voters said the same.

Nearly 63% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement: “I don’t pay much attention to politics because nothing ever gets done – it’s a bunch of empty promises.” And 68% agreed or strongly agreed with this sentiment: “I don’t pay much attention to politics because it is so corrupt.”

“Even if there is a surge in turnout, a majority of America will not vote in November,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “It’s a chilling story to tell. These people don’t vote. They could hate Trump, but they could still not vote because they hate political parties, they hate Democrats, they hate the bureaucracy, they hate the infighting, the negativity—all of that.”

The voter turnout rate for midterm elections is reliably lower than for presidential elections. In 2014, only 36% of eligible voters actually voted, while 144 million stayed home,  according to data from the U.S. Election Project.

The survey results suggest that former President Obama is the type of inspirational candidate that persuades infrequent voters to vote, Paleologos said.

“Barack Obama’s strong support in the 2008 and 2012 elections brought voters of all races to the polls, including white voters,” Paleologos said. “When Obama was no longer on the ballot, some of these voters just walked away. Democrats can’t underestimate the value of a young, inspirational nominee.”

Obama was one of several names that came up when respondents were asked who would “definitely” motivate them to register and vote in a presidential election. The top responses were Bernie Sanders (7%), Joe Biden (4%), Donald Trump (4%) and Michelle Obama (4%).

Research contact: @usatoday