Posts tagged with "Politico/Morning Consult Poll"

Trump’s impeachment tantrums disengage key 2020 supporters

October 4, 2019

Women across the nation are viewing President Donald Trump’s impeachment-incited tirades with consternation and concern, Politico reports. And they do not represent the only key voting bloc that has backed off since the whistleblower report was released to Congress in late September.

Indeed, nearly a half-dozen polls conducted since September 24—when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) announced the official launch of an impeachment inquiry—have found female voters rallying behind her call to action; intensifying concerns among White House allies that the white women who helped carry Trump to victory in 2016 can no longer be counted on next November.

Specifically, 57% of registered female voters strongly or somewhat approved of impeachment in a CBS survey released September 30; and  62% of women in a Quinnipiac University survey released Monday said they thought “Trump believes he is above the law.”

The development comes, according to Politico, just as two more key demographics—Independent voters and college-educated whites—are exhibiting ever-larger “fault lines” in their resistance to impeachment.

What’s more, the allegations against Trump—that he leveraged U.S. aid to Ukraine, holding back funding unless the eastern European nation agreed to supply “opposition research” on Joe Biden, a Democratic frontrunner in the 2020 presidential election—also are changing the dynamics on Capitol Hill.

Should impeachment gain the support of an undeniable majority of likely voters, Republicans legislators who previously declined to distance themselves from the president could quickly change their calculus, the news outlet says—setting Trump on the same lonely course that led to President Richard Nixon’s Watergate-era resignation in August 1974.

“From my point of view as a Republican pollster, the president’s base has been solid so far,” Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, which oversaw an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted last week, told Politico during an interview. “But college-educated whites have electoral significance for us in the suburbs and can completely shift the dynamic and the conversation just by virtue of shifting the overall numbers.”

In some cases, that shift already has started: Fifty percent of college-educated whites in an NPR/Marist College survey said they approved of House Democrats’ decision to launch the formal impeachment inquiry into Trump. That compares to a narrower margin of support for the move (45-43) in a Politico/Morning Consult poll released Wednesday.

“If you look at college-educated whites, those are probably some of the most engaged voters. They are a big and important chunk of the electorate and they have shifted the most resolutely toward impeachment so far,” Roberts said.

“I really don’t like where we are right now,” said one prominent Republican pollster.

To be sure, Politico says, some of the same polls include evidence suggesting impeachment could become a political risk for Democrats as they head into a heated election year. And the rapid-pace environment in which the impeachment process has already unfolded, combined with varying levels of understanding of the process itself, mean a lot of voters are still in “wait-and-see mode,” according to Roberts.

Finally, some polls have underscored mixed feelings among voters toward the former vice president, which would be a positive sign for the president. For example, 42% of voters in a Monmouth survey said Biden “probably exerted pressure on Ukrainian officials to avoid investigating” his son during his time in office; but only 26%t of voters in a Reuters/Ipsos poll said they believe Biden is attempting to conceal a potential scandal ahead of 2020.

With Elizabeth Warren already ahead by several percentage points in key primary and caucus areas, the opinions on Biden may, in the end, be moot.

Research contact: @politico

Deal or no deal? Senate to vote on Trump’s ‘national emergency’ declaration this week

March 14, 2019

As of March 13, fully 52% of U.S. voters continue to oppose President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national emergency at the southern border, according to findings of a Politico/Morning Consult poll.

Based on the polling results, Trump has failed to build support for his declaration in the face of congressional opposition; the results are essentially unchanged since he signed an order to reallocate military funds toward construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Only 38% of voters support the declaration.

The partisan divides suggest that this week’s Senate vote to nullify the president’s power to declare a national emergency could put the squeeze on Republican incumbents in battleground states. Indeed, G.O.P. Senators Cory Gardner of Colorado, Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are expected to join Democrats in voting disapprove Trump’s declaration

Likewise, Democrats are expected to reject a move by Republicans that would amend the president’s powers under the 1975 National Emergencies Act. Under the proposed legislation, national emergencies would end after 30 days if Congress does not vote to extend them. (And the Senate vote against the president’s emergency declaration would become a moot issue.)

“Republican Senators are proposing new legislation to allow the president to violate the Constitution just this once in order to give themselves cover,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) said on her official website, adding, “The House will not take up this legislation to give President Trump a pass.”

By promising not to bring the legislation to the floor, Pelosi hopes to put pressure on Republican lawmakers trying to balance their desire to support Trump’s immigration policy and their professed concerns about presidential power, CNBC reported on Wednesday.

Trump has recently tried to pressure Republicans by framing the vote as one about border security rather than executive power. CNBC said.

The president has pledged to veto any bill that would kill “emergency” funding for his wall. Neither the House nor the Senate appears to have the two-thirds majority support needed to overcome his opposition.

Research contact: @jacobpramuk