Posts tagged with "Paul Ryan"

A chief economist says McConnell expects Trump to lose the election—so he won’t force a stimulus vote

October 19, 2020

Mitch McConnell won’t risk his position as Senate majority leader by forcing through a stimulus bill now, because he expects President Donald Trump to lose next month’s election, Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in the United Kingdom, said in a webinar on October 15.

“I think McConnell expects Trump to lose, and therefore, for him to spend political capital to support Trump by forcing through a bill which would put his own leadership position at risk after the election, to me, doesn’t make any sense,” Shepherdson said, according to a report by Business Insider.

“It’s always wise to do things from McConnell’s personal perspective, because that’s how things operate in the Senate. He has enormous personal power, and he wants to be leader again, even if he has to be a leader in the minority,” he said, alluding to the potential that Democrats could win a majority in the Senate next month.

House Democrats have put forward a $2.2 trillion plan, but McConnell has described it as “outlandish” and said the amount was too high.

On Thursday, he signaled that his limit is $500 billion, Business Insider said. “My members think what we laid out—a half a trillion dollars, highly targeted—is the best way to go,” he said. “So that’s what I’m going to put on the floor.”

To pass a big relief bill, Shepherdson said, McConnell would end up dividing his own party, since about 15 to 20 Republicans oppose a deal at or above $1.5 trillion.

But he ultimately wouldn’t push Republicans to agree, because “splitting the party is death to the leader,” Shepherdson said. He cited examples of the Republican leaders John Boehner and Paul Ryan, who also faced contentious splits within the GOP.

“There will be no bill of any size until after the inauguration,” Shepherdson said. “Here we are, in mid-October, looking at money not flowing until mid-February. That means a real void for the economy. It means potentially some very nasty growth numbers.”

Shepherdson added that market volatility around the rising or falling chance of a new stimulus bill had been “an accident waiting to happen.”

He said he expected a multitrillion-dollar bill by the end of January.

“The bill that I think will pass in February will be enormous. It will be $2 trillion-plus. It might even be the $3.3 trillion that the Democratic majority passed in May which was then ignored by the Senate,” he said.

But he said he didn’t expect the two chambers of Congress to work together before then. “That means leaving something positive for Biden to start with, and that’s not the mindset of Republicans in the Senate,” he said.

Research contact: @businessinsider

Speaker Paul Ryan to ‘retire’ by year-end

April 12, 2018

Facing a tough Democratic rival in his home Congressional District in Wisconsin, as well as accusations in nation’s capital of favoring tawdry politics over patriotism, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan announced on April 11 that he would retire at the end of this year and not seek reelection.

An  internal poll of 400 likely voters conducted in December by the Democratic candidate for Ryan’s seat, Randy Bryce—the ironworker who blasted onto the national political scene in June with a viral video—found that the newcomer trailed by just 6 points in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, 46% to 40%, Politico reported.

Ryan has represented the 1st district since 1999, winning reelection handily each time he’s been on the ballot—but, in 2016, he failed to win his hometown of Janesville.

Cathy Myers, a former teacher and school board member who is facing off with Bryce for the Democratic slot, told Vogue this week,” The reality on the ground is, he was running scared. I think that he knew he was going to have a huge battle ahead of him, and that the momentum is on our side. He knew that people felt unserved and that they were tired of it. He’s getting out while the getting is good.”

However Ryan and his aides put out statements that he had “had a good run,” in his 20 years in Congress and had accomplished a lot, and that now he wanted to spend time with his family.

“After nearly twenty years in the House, the speaker is proud of all that has been accomplished and is ready to devote more of his time to being a husband and a father,” said Brendan Buck, counselor to Speaker Ryan, in a statement that ran in Politico. “While he did not seek the position, he told his colleagues that serving as speaker has been the professional honor of his life, and he thanked them for the trust they placed in him.”

President Trump, who has had a complicated relationship with the Speaker, tweeted that Ryan “is a truly good man” adding, “he will leave a legacy of achievement that nobody can question.”

Another spokesperson for Ryan commented that he’s going to “run through the finish line” and remain as Speaker for now. However, Representative Mark Meadows (R-11th District-North Carolina) the leader of the conservative Freedom Caucus, suggested it might not be realistic for Ryan to remain in the top leadership position, noting the race to succeed him will begin “immediately.”

“They won’t wait for nine months,” Meadows told reporters.

Research contact: @cbuddoffbrown