Posts tagged with "New Hampshire"

Bloomberg wins Dixville Notch vote as New Hampshire goes to polls in primary

February 12, 2020

Just after midnight in the tiny city of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire—a township located close to the Canadian border with a population of 12, as of the 2010 Census—Democratic presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg scored a big win by garnering just three votes out of the total five ballots cast by residents.

That’s a big deal in Dixville Notch, which started voting at midnight in the 1960s—and 70 years later, still retains the title of the first town to count its votes in the nation’s first primary election, The New York Daily News reports..

Of the other candidates on the ballot, Joe Biden got one vote and Bernie Sanders scooped another. No one voted for President Donald Trump, although the state’s open primary system means voters can choose which party contest to vote in.

“I believe Mike Bloomberg can win the presidency in November and get things done in a way I feel good about,” a resident told the Daily News after casting his ballot for Bloomberg. He said he had never voted for a Democrat before.

Indeed, this is the first time in recent memory that all the votes in Dixville Notch were cast for candidates from one party.

Bloomberg is not on the New Hampshire Democratic primary ballot because he entered the race too late to file for it. All three votes for him were write-ins, and his campaign is not anticipating any significant number of votes statewide.

According to the Daily News, the tiny community has a less-than-stellar record of predicting the outcome of the primary. Hillary Clinton won with four votes in 2016 but went on to get demolished by Bernie Sanders. In 2012, President Barack Obama tied Mitt Romney with five votes each.

Research contact: @NYDailyNews

Editor’s note:  Bernie Sanders took the lead in New Hampshire, with 25.7% of the vote (71,090 votes); Pete Buttigieg came in second with 24.4% (57,706); and in a surprising show of strength, Amy Klobuchar placed third, with 19.8% (57,706 votes) with nearly 96% of the votes counted.

Buttigieg to ‘re-Pete’ Iowa surge in New Hampshire primary?

February 10, 2020

Building on his strong showing in Iowa, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has continued his surge among likely Democratic New Hampshire presidential primary voters—putting him in a statistical dead heat against Senator Bernie Sanders, based on results of a Boston Globe/WBZ-TV/Suffolk University poll released on Thursday night.

Former vice president Joe Biden—whose campaign suffered a self-described “gut punch” from a disappointing fourth-place finish in the Hawkeye State—saw another modest dip in his numbers in the latest canvassing.

That put him in fourth place behind Senator Elizabeth Warren in Thursday’s poll, the fourth of seven that the Suffolk University Political Research Center is conducting in the run-up to the nation’s first primary New Hampshire on Tuesday.

Specifically, the Globe reported, Sanders held steady at 24%; with Buttigieg close at his heels at 23%. Biden slipped to 11%, below Warren’s 13%.

 “It looks like Buttigieg’s momentum is continuing, and he’s really going at the heart of Biden’s strength, which is older voters,” David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center told the news outlet.

In Thursday’s poll, which had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.4 percentage points, Buttigieg was at 32% among voters over age 65, Paleologos said, while Biden had dropped to just 15%, and Sanders to 14%.

But the 78-year-old Vermont senator continued to outperform the 38-year-old former Indiana mayor among younger voters—with Sanders garnering 43% among those ages 18 to 35, the Globe said, compared to just 14% for Buttigieg.

If the current trends continue, Paleologos said, Buttigieg could become the candidate to beat in New Hampshire, but a lot can still happen before Tuesday—including a televised Democratic debate Friday night that could shift everyone’s numbers again.

Research contact: @BostonGlobe

Warren, now the frontrunner, plans $10M+ digital and TV ad buy in early states

September 25, 2019

According to the latest Des Moines Register polling, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) has surged—narrowly overtaking former Vice President Joe Biden and distancing herself from fellow progressive Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont).

Indeed, Warren now holds a 2-percentage-point lead over the previous frontrunner, Biden, with 22% of likely Democratic caucus-goers saying she is their first choice for president. And she “has a plan” to keep their votes—and build on that growing base.

On Tuesday, September 24, Warren’s presidential campaign announced that it planned to spend at least $10 million on a  TV and digital ad campaign in “early-states” including Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina

The campaign told Politico  that a digital ad campaign would begin immediately and that the entire buy will ramp up over the next few months. The campaign declined to say when its spending on digital and TV ads would reach eight figures.

“Right now, our biggest expense as a campaign is our staff, but as the campaign heats up, it will be on media to reach potential voters,” Campaign Manager Roger Lau wrote in a memo emailed to supporters Tuesday morning. The campaign “will be more digital than old-school broadcast television.”

The campaign also released three ads on Tuesday—15-second30-second, and 60-second— which highlight Warren’s policy plans and her intention to crack down on corruption in government, Politico reported.

The shorter ads both end with: “I’m Elizabeth Warren. I know what’s wrong. I know how to fix it. And I’ll fight to get it done.”

The longest one finishes with footage from Warren’s recent rally in New York City and concludes with her saying, “It’s corruption: pure and simple. We must root it out and return our democracy to the people. And yes, I got a plan for that.”

 “We have built an in-house staff to produce videos and ads rather than adopt the consultant-driven approach of other campaigns (and the big commissions and fees that come along with it),” Lau wrote, according to the news outlet.

Warren is one of several candidates who have recently announced at least part of their strategy for the final months before the Iowa caucus next February.

The memo highlighted Warren’s tactical choices, such as investing early in organizers and integrating its data and tech teams in-house. Both moves have been praised by Democratic activists in early states and some digital organizers. Politico said

Research contact: @politico

Most voters don’t back death penalty for drug dealers

March 26, 2018

At an event in Manchester, New Hampshire, on March 19 President Donald Trump unveiled a multi-step anti-opioid proposal that would include harsher penalties for drug dealing and trafficking, including capital punishment for some offenses.

“If we don’t get tough on the drug dealers, we’re wasting our time,” Trump told the crowd, some of whom shouted “Yes!” in response to his statement, NBC News reported. “That toughness includes the death penalty.”

However, in a follow-up poll of 1,291 registered voters conducted by Quinnipiac University, Americans opposed  imposing the death penalty on drug dealers whose sales ultimately cause overdoses by a plurality of  71% versus 21%—including 57% to 35%  opposition among Republicans

Voters said, 75% versus 20%, that this use of the death penalty would not help stop the opioid crisis.

In a simple question, American voters support the death penalty (58% to 33%) for persons convicted of murder, according to Quinnipiac. But when offered a choice between the death penalty or life in prison with no chance of parole, American voters choose the life option, 51% to 37%—the first time a majority of voters has backed the life without parole option since the independent Quinnipiac University Poll first asked this question in 2004.

But voters say ( 64% to 31%)  that the death penalty should not be abolished nationwide. Democrats are divided—as 47% want to abolish the death penalty and 46% don’t want to see it nullified Every other listed party, gender, education, age and racial group is opposed to abolishing the death penalty.

“It’s a mixed message on a question that has moral and religious implications. Voters are perhaps saying, ‘Keep the death penalty, but just don’t use it,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“Despite what President Donald Trump says, neither Democrats nor Republicans have the stomach for executing drug dealers,” Malloy added.

Research contact: timothy.malloy@quinnipiac.edu