Posts tagged with "NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll"

Trump’s impeachment tantrums disengage key 2020 supporters

October 4, 2019

Women across the nation are viewing President Donald Trump’s impeachment-incited tirades with consternation and concern, Politico reports. And they do not represent the only key voting bloc that has backed off since the whistleblower report was released to Congress in late September.

Indeed, nearly a half-dozen polls conducted since September 24—when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) announced the official launch of an impeachment inquiry—have found female voters rallying behind her call to action; intensifying concerns among White House allies that the white women who helped carry Trump to victory in 2016 can no longer be counted on next November.

Specifically, 57% of registered female voters strongly or somewhat approved of impeachment in a CBS survey released September 30; and  62% of women in a Quinnipiac University survey released Monday said they thought “Trump believes he is above the law.”

The development comes, according to Politico, just as two more key demographics—Independent voters and college-educated whites—are exhibiting ever-larger “fault lines” in their resistance to impeachment.

What’s more, the allegations against Trump—that he leveraged U.S. aid to Ukraine, holding back funding unless the eastern European nation agreed to supply “opposition research” on Joe Biden, a Democratic frontrunner in the 2020 presidential election—also are changing the dynamics on Capitol Hill.

Should impeachment gain the support of an undeniable majority of likely voters, Republicans legislators who previously declined to distance themselves from the president could quickly change their calculus, the news outlet says—setting Trump on the same lonely course that led to President Richard Nixon’s Watergate-era resignation in August 1974.

“From my point of view as a Republican pollster, the president’s base has been solid so far,” Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, which oversaw an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted last week, told Politico during an interview. “But college-educated whites have electoral significance for us in the suburbs and can completely shift the dynamic and the conversation just by virtue of shifting the overall numbers.”

In some cases, that shift already has started: Fifty percent of college-educated whites in an NPR/Marist College survey said they approved of House Democrats’ decision to launch the formal impeachment inquiry into Trump. That compares to a narrower margin of support for the move (45-43) in a Politico/Morning Consult poll released Wednesday.

“If you look at college-educated whites, those are probably some of the most engaged voters. They are a big and important chunk of the electorate and they have shifted the most resolutely toward impeachment so far,” Roberts said.

“I really don’t like where we are right now,” said one prominent Republican pollster.

To be sure, Politico says, some of the same polls include evidence suggesting impeachment could become a political risk for Democrats as they head into a heated election year. And the rapid-pace environment in which the impeachment process has already unfolded, combined with varying levels of understanding of the process itself, mean a lot of voters are still in “wait-and-see mode,” according to Roberts.

Finally, some polls have underscored mixed feelings among voters toward the former vice president, which would be a positive sign for the president. For example, 42% of voters in a Monmouth survey said Biden “probably exerted pressure on Ukrainian officials to avoid investigating” his son during his time in office; but only 26%t of voters in a Reuters/Ipsos poll said they believe Biden is attempting to conceal a potential scandal ahead of 2020.

With Elizabeth Warren already ahead by several percentage points in key primary and caucus areas, the opinions on Biden may, in the end, be moot.

Research contact: @politico

Administration aims $100 billion tax cut at the rich

August 2, 2018

As if the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act did not provide enough payback to President Donald Trump and his elite donors in 2018; the POTUS now is contemplating a unilateral move that would cut taxes, mainly for rich people, by $100 billion.

Specifically, the administration is considering bypassing Congress in an effort to cut capital gains taxes—a gambit that many say would not be lawful; but, like the earlier act, would overwhelmingly benefit the wealthy.

Indeed, The New York Times reported on July 30, that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had said last week at the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Argentina that his department was “studying whether it could use its regulatory powers to allow Americans to account for inflation in determining capital gains tax liabilities.”

Mnuchin noted that the Treasury Department could change the definition of “cost” for calculating capital gains, the Times said—thereby, enabling taxpayers to adjust the initial value of an asset, such as a home or a share of stock, for inflation when it sells.

As an example, the Times said, if a high earner spent $100,000 on stock in 1980 , and sold it for $1 million today, he or she would owe taxes on $900,000. But if the original purchase price was adjusted for inflation—as Mnuchin and Trump are considering— it would be about $300,000, reducing  his or her taxable “gain” to $700,000. That would save the investor $40,000.

If it can’t get done through a legislation process, we will look at what tools at Treasury we have to do it on our own and we’ll consider that,” Mnuchin told the Times, emphasizing that he had not concluded whether the Treasury Department had the authority to act alone.”

As the news hit the streets, Democrats pushed back. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) took to Twitter to voice her disgust, saying “@realDonaldTrump wants to go around Congress & hand $100 billion to his rich buddies on top of $1.5 trillion he gave away to billionaires & big corporations last year. DC works great if you’re rich & powerful. How about a gov’t that works for everyone?

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll fielded in April found that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act already had lost its luster among American voters. Just 27% of the electorate called it a good idea, down from 30% in January. A 36% plurality called it a bad idea, while the rest had no opinion.

Research contact: @mmurrarypolitics

GOP falters in suburban districts

March 22, 2018

Americans now favor Democratic control of Congress by 10 points—50% to 40%—up 6 points from last month, with the GOP losing support among key voter groups, based on findings of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on March 18.

The numbers, combined with results of last week’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district, suggest “a very rocky midterm season may await Republicans this fall.” According to the pollsters.

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll

Several key segments of the electorate that the GOP targets to push the party over the top are showing declining support—with support among white voters down 3 points to 47% since January; backing in GOP districts down 6 points to 46%; enthusiasm among suburbanites down 7 points to 43%; and endorsement among white-collar workers down by 9 points to 38%.

There was a huge 13-point decline among 18- to 34-year-old voters to,  29%.

NBC notes, “Those changes look particularly concerning for Republicans when you compare them to results from past elections. In the 2014 midterms, for instance, Republicans won white voters by a large margin, 60% to 38%. And that year, the GOP won the vote out of the suburbs, 52% to 43%.”

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll

On the danger list, the pollsters believe: Republican districts that were already seen as competitive in suburban/urban areas around Atlanta, Detroit, Cleveland, the Twin Cities, New York City—even Omaha, Nebraska.

Research contact: @Dchinni