Posts tagged with "Morning Consult"

Don’t count Schumer out: He plans to force votes on evidence, testimony that will ‘squeeze’ Republicans

January 14, 2020

While, in the run-up to the impeachment trial, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has appeared to be unflinching in his support of President Donald Trump, he should not underestimate his political rival, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Politico reports.

Indeed, although McConnell already has locked up enough Republican votes to ignore demands for a bipartisan framework for the trial, his Democratic counterpart is preparing a counteroffensive. Schumer plans to force a series of votes designed to squeeze vulnerable Republicans and harm them on the campaign trail if they side with Trump, the news outlet says.

Democrats argue the half-dozen at-risk GOP senators will need some daylight between them and Trump to get reelected. And if they vote against Schumer’s motions to hear new evidence and witness testimony, they’ll be seen as Trump sycophants — undermining their bids and boosting Schumer’s odds of becoming majority leader.

Support for obtaining new documents at the trial is “even stronger than we thought, with large numbers of Republicans supporting it,” Schumer said in an interview with Politico. “And when you go against what the American people feel strongly about, on an issue they’re paying attention to, it’s not a good idea.”

Public surveys in key swing states back up Democrats’ claims. Polling from Hart Research found that 63% of voters in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina would react unfavorably if their senator voted against calling witnesses or subpoenaing documents during the Senate impeachment trial.

Another poll from Morning Consult found 57% of voters believe the Senate should call additional witnesses. That includes 71% of Democrats, 56% of Independents, and 40% of Republicans.

What’s more, the president’s former National Security Adviser John Bolton’s offer to testify has given some momentum to Democrats’ calls for witnesses and documents about the White House’s decision to withhold military aid to Ukraine. Democrats also want to hear from Acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, Office of Management and Budget official Michael Duffey, and Mulvaney Adviser Robert Blair.

“If the Republicans ram through process that ultimately leads to no witnesses, I think they do it at their own peril,” Senator Bob Menendez (D-New Jersey), a former chairman of the party’s campaign arm, told Politico. “Some of these members: They have an audience of one. But I think they forgot that there’s a broader audience that they’re going to have to face at election time.”

“The procedural votes may be more important than the vote on removal or acquittal. Because what will matter more to voters than where a senator lands is how he or she got there,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster for Hart Research. “So if Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) or any of the other Republicans vote for acquittal and the takeaway for voters is this is a political or partisan vote on an important issue, that will have a long lasting impact.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said that she will release the articles of impeachment to McConnell this week.

Research contact: @politico

Trump unleashes torrent of tweeted threats against Iran

July 24, 2018

President Donald Trump sent out a furious, all-caps tweet aimed at Iranian President Hassan Rouhani late on July 22, warning the leader to stop threatening the United States, the Huffington Post reported.

In a late-night screed similar to his “fire and fury” harangue against North Korea last August, the POTUS warned the Iranian politician and Islamic cleric, “NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH, BE CAUTIOUS!”

According to the German publication, Deutsche Welle (DW), President Rouhani began the exchange earlier in the day by warning the United States that Iran could shut down international oil shipments in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, if Washington continues to provoke his nation—as Rouhani believes America has done by backing out of the nuclear deal framework that it signed with its allies in 2015.

After refusing to support the deal, the Trump administration also had demanded that signatories to the framework end all imports of Iranian oil when the sanctions go into effect in November, but the State Department rolled back those demands saying it would work with countries on a “case-by-case basis.”

“We have always guaranteed the security of this strait,” Rouhani told diplomats in the Iranian capital last Sunday. “Do not play with the lion’s tail; you will regret it forever.”

“Whenever Europe has sought an agreement with us, the White House has sown discord,” Rouhani said. “Americans should know that peace with Iran is the mother of all peace,” he added. “Likewise a war would be the mother of all wars.”

Rouhani and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei have both rejected calls to negotiate with Trump over a replacement sanctions relief deal.

Brigadier Gen. Gholam Hossein Gheibparvar, a commander for the country’s Revolutionary Guard, brushed the threatening tweet from President Trump off on July 23 as mere “psychological warfare” against the regime, saying Trump wouldn’t dare act on his threats, the Associated Press reported.

White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders on July 23 reiterated Trump’s warning to Iran, telling Fox News that “if needed, and steps are required, this president is not afraid to take them.

“He’s certainly not going to tolerate the leader of Iran making threats against Americans, making threats against this country, making threats against Israel,” Sanders said. “This is a president who is going to stand up and make sure he is doing what is necessary.”

A majority of Americans wanted the Trump administration to adhere to the Iran nuclear deal, according to a public opinion poll released in early May by Morning Consult and Politico. The poll, which included online interviews with close to 2,000 Americans registered to vote, showed that 56% of respondents expressed support for the deal, while 26% expressed opposition to it. The pollsters described these numbers as a “record high” in support of the deal, and a “record low” in opposition to it.

Research contact: editors@morningconsult.com

Erik Prince has flipped for Mueller

June 20, 2018

While Americans continue to seesaw in their approval of the Russia probe generally—and Special Counsel Robert Mueller, in particular—more of President Donald Trump’s aides and supporters continue to flip for the investigators. Erik Prince, founder of private military contractor Blackwater, told The Daily Beast’s Betsy Woodruff on June 19 that he now is among the witnesses who have “cooperated” with the ongoing investigation into Russian election interference.

Prince, who reportedly met with a Russian wealth fund manager in the Seychelles during the transition to set up a back channel between the Trump administration and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, told Woodruff that he has “spoken voluntarily to Congress and I also cooperated with the special counsel.”

At first, Prince, who is the brother of Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, had claimed that he merely took the trip as a vacation jaunt and encountered the Russian briefly and casually.

Now, The Daily Beast reports, Prince is all-in on the Trump-Putin connection. “As I’ve said before, if Franklin Roosevelt can work with Joseph Stalin to defeat German fascism, Nazi fascism, national socialist fascism, then certainly Donald Trump can work with Putin to defeat Islamic fascism,” he said.

What’s more, the Blackwater founder said, a relationship with North Korea will be beneficial. I don’t think we have to be provocative with NATO and I think it’s a good idea for the president to reach out diplomatically,” Prince divulged, adding, “ I mean, for heaven’s sakes, he’s sitting down and talking to Kim [Jong-un] of North Korea. Putin is a much more rational actor and I think it’s totally appropriate for the president to sit down and try to thaw the situation.”

” … All I will add,” Prince told Woodruff, “is that much of the reporting about me in the media is inaccurate, and I am confident that when the investigators have finished their work, we will be able to put these distractions to the side.”

Meanwhile, it is no surprise that a Politico/Morning Consult poll released on June 13 found that 53% of Republicans now say they view the lead Russian investigator in an unfavorable light.

Research contact: @woodruffbets

Can a U.S. president pardon himself? Most voters say ‘no’

June 15, 2018

On June 4, America’s Tweeter-in-Chief sent out a message, saying that, “As has been stated by numerous legal scholars, I have the absolute right to PARDON myself.” However, based on findings of a poll conducted the following week among nearly 2,000 registered U.S. voters by Morning Consult and Politico, the American public disagrees.

Specifically, as Time magazine reported this week, 58% of registered voters said they do not believe the president has the power to pardon himself, while only 21% agreed with Trump on the issue.

Trump took his stand on Twitter two days after The New York Times published a confidential January 29 memo from his then-lawyer John Dowd to Special Counsel Robert Mueller—which comprised the only current legal argument for the power of the president to pardon himself.

A 1974 memo written by Acting Assistant Attorney General Mary Lawton of the Office of Legal Counsel under President Richard Nixon stated that the president could not self-pardon, based on the long-standing legal principle that no person can be their own judge, Time points out.

What’s more, although the Supreme Court never has ruled on the issue—and the POTUS’s current lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, said recently that Trump would not pardon himself because it could then trigger his impeachment by the House of Representatives.

Based on the Morning Consult/Politico poll findings, the prevailing sentiment against a self-pardon was even stronger among some groups, with 76% of Democrats and 61% of Independents opining that it would not be legally permissible. Republicans, however, were split, with 36% saying it would not be permissible and 33% saying it would be.

Research contact: editors@morningconsult.com

Howard Schultz steps down at Starbucks amid rumors of a presidential run

June 6, 2018

Howard Schultz, who oversaw Starbucks’ growth into a worldwide coffee behemoth over the past 36 years—with 28,000 stores in 77 countries—will step down as executive chairman late this month amid swirling speculation that he is considering running for president in 2020, NBC News reported on June 4.

Holding back tears, Schultz talked to a mix of partners, board members, and former colleagues this week, kvelling, “We are in the business that elevates humanity. It’s about what we’ve been able to create: a unique experience around love and humanity.”

In a memo to his employees, he said, “no person or company is ever perfect,” but that he was proud that the company had balanced “profitability and social conscience, compassion and rigor, and love and responsibility.”

Schultz, 64, who stepped away from his role as chief executive last year, will assume the title of chairman emeritus on June 26, the company said in a statement.

Starbucks lauded him for having “reimagined the Italian coffeehouse tradition in America and redefined the role and responsibility of a publicly held company,” saying that he had demonstrated that “a business can simultaneously deliver best-in-class financial performance and share success with its people and the communities it serves.”

His next move is rumored to be national politics. Indeed, for more than a year, NBC News reports, there has been rampant speculation that Schultz, a fierce critic of President Donald Trump, is gearing up to run for president in 2020.

He told CNN in February that he wouldn’t be a candidate, but when asked about the prospect again in an interview on June 4 with The New York Times, he replied: “I intend to think about a range of options, and that could include public service. But I’m a long way from making any decisions about the future.”

Indeed, according to a June 5 story by Business Insider, pollsters have been tracking Schultz’s potential for nearly a year. Morning Consult, a nonpartisan polling outlet, placed Schultz at 21% favorability among Democrats, based on a national sample of 895 registered members of the party in June 2017—calling him “the most popular 2020 Democratic prospect not named Joe Biden.”

What’s more, he almost made it into the race the last time. In October 2016, a month before Trump was elected, WikiLeaks posted hacked emails from Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign revealing that Schultz had been under consideration  o be Clinton’s running mate—a role that eventually went to Senator Tim Kaine (D-Virginia).

Schultz said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” in October 2014 that many of America’s problems stemmed from years of institutional failures in Washington. “As business people and business leaders, we need to take the lead and do what we can to move the country forward,” he said then, adding: “There has to be a balance between profitability and doing everything we can to get the country moving again. And that goes back to Washington. “Washington has let the country down.”

Research contact: @nbcnews

Giuliani disclosure dumps Trump into Cohen legal mess

May 4, 2018

Just last week, a Politico/Morning Consult poll found that Americans nationwide suspected that Stormy Daniels was telling the truth about her affair with, and payoff by, President Donald Trump. Now, thanks to the POTUS’s new lawyer, Rudy Guiliani, we know it.

Specifically, the poll found, a majority of the U.S. public believed that Trump had bedded the adult film actress.  Fully 56% of respondents said they believed the two had an affair; and 51% said they believed Daniels’ allegations.

Now, in breaking news on May 3, Politico reported that, overnight, Guiliani had told the Fox News Channel’s Sean Hannity that the POTUS had reimbursed his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen for a $130,000 payment to Daniels (whose real name is Stephanie Clifford), meant to keep her quiet.

That revelation may represent the final nail in the coffin for Trump’s continuing claims (and legal case) that he did not cheat on his wife or pay off Daniels in an attempt to keep the tryst(s) out of the news.

Indeed, the actress’s lawyer, Michael Avenatti on Thursday said he might send a gift basket to Fox for breaking open the story, according to MSNBC.

In response, Trump continued to deny that he or Cohen had done anything wrong. In early morning tweets, the president said “Mr. Cohen, an attorney, received a monthly retainer, not from the campaign and having nothing to do with the campaign, from which he entered into, through reimbursement , a private contract between two parties, known as a non-disclosure agreement or NDA.

The president said that non-disclosure agreements are “very common” among celebrities and “people of wealth,” and noted that this one was invoked to stop “false and extortionist accusations.”

This follows repeated statements by the president that he knew nothing about the payment and had not reimbursed his lawyer for it.

Research contact: jyuan@politico.com

Macron, U.S. voters want President Trump to back Iran deal

April 26, 2018

France’s President Emmanuel Macron has been making U.S. President Donald Trump “feel the love” during a White House visit this week.

Indeed, Macron, who has been dubbed “The Trump Whisperer,” hopes to influence the POTUS to sign off on a new agreement with Iran that would curb its development of ballistic missiles and contain its involvement in regional wars, in addition to halting its nuclear program, according to an April 24 Bloomberg report.

Public support for the Iran nuclear deal has remained steady, based on findings of a Morning Consult/Politico survey that was fielded ahead of last year’s October 15 deadline for Trump to declare whether the Middle Eastern country is in compliance with the accord’s framework.

In the online poll—conducted in late September among 1,987 registered voters—54% of respondents said they were in favor of the agreement reached in 2015 between former President Barack Obama, Iranian leaders and the heads of six other countries and the European Union to lift economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for its pledge to halt efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

Fully 69% of Democratic voters supported the deal, along with 46% of Independents and 43% of Republicans.

Despite confirmations from Trump administration officials that Tehran is complying with the deal, the president has continued to rail against it, calling it an “embarrassment to the United States.”

Thirty-seven percent of voters said they prefer that Trump recertify the deal, with 34% saying he should decertify it and let Congress decide whether to reimpose sanctions — effectively killing the deal.

At a joint press conference with Macron at the  White House on April 24, Trump commented, “People know my views on the Iran deal. It was a terrible deal …. It’s insane. It’s ridiculous. It should have never been made, but we will be talking about it.”

“We have a common objective, we want to make sure there’s no escalation and no nuclear proliferation in the region. We now need to find the right path forward,” Macron said, through an interpreter.

Research contact: ceasley@morningconsult.com

U.S. Senators: Who’s tops and who’s not

April 17, 2018

During the first quarter of 2018, Bernie Sanders (Independent-Vermont) was rated the most popular Senator in the United States, with 72% approval from voters. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Republican-Kentucky) came in dead last, with 52% disapproval.

Both rankings were based on a survey of more than 275,000 registered U.S. voters, conducted from January 1 through March 31, by Morning Consult  and released on April 12.

The Green Mountain State’s senators seem to have what it takes, grabbing the two preeminent slots overall. The senators from South Dakota and Wyoming—coming in at numbers three and seven; and five and six, respectively—also are supporting the voters’ agenda.

The full list of the top ten Senators (with the highest approval ratings nationwide, as established by Morning Consult) is as follows:

  1. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont): 72% approval
  2. Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont): 65%
  3. John Thune (R-South Dakota): 62%
  4. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota): 60%
  5. Michael Enzi (R-Wyoming): 59%
  6. John Barrasso (R-Wyoming): 59%
  7. Mike Rounds (R-South Dakota) 58%
  8. Angus King (I-Maine) 58%
  9. John Hoeven (R-North Dakota); 57%
  10. Jon Tester: D-Montana): 56%

On the down side, net approval for Mitch McConnell actually rose by three points during the first quarter, with 52% disapproving and 34% approving of his job performance. He remains the least popular senator.

Both senators from Arizona registered high disapproval ratings, coming in at numbers two and three. The list of the bottom ten senators is as follows:

  1. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky): 52% disapproval
  2. Jeff Flake (R-Arizona): 50%
  3. John McCain (R-Arizona): 48%
  4. Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri): 44%
  5. Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia): 44%
  6. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin): 42%
  7. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska): 42%
  8. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) 41%
  9. Richard Durbin (D-Illinois): 40%
  10. Dean Heller (R-Nevada): 40%

The eight senators with the biggest declines last quarter—a net drop of nine points each or more—are all Democrats.

Joe Manchin, West Virginia, who is up for re-election in a state where 58% of voters approved of President Donald Trump during the first quarter, now finds himself  one point underwater— 43% approve, 44% disapprove—after a net slide of 17 points from fourth quarter, the biggest decline of any senator during that period.

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, North Dakota, suffered a net decline of nine points, although she still has the approval of 47% of her constituents.

Hawaii’s Mazie Hirono and Brian Schatz  each dropped 13 points, while New Mexico Senators Martin Heinrich and Tom Udall fell nine points and ten points, respectively. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (New York) and Senator Tom Carper of Delaware also slid nine points each.

Research contact: ceasley@morningconsult.com

U.S. women are unaware they could be ‘heartsick’

February 7, 2018

Results of a national poll, commissioned by CVS Health and released on January 3, reveal that—while 92% of American women are aware of the dangers of heart disease—few acknowledge their personal risk for an attack.

In fact, just 18% of women nationwide consider heart disease to be the greatest health problem facing Americans today and the majority of American women are unaware of their status for factors that could increase their risk of heart disease—including cholesterol levels (57%), blood sugar (58%), Body Mass Index (BMI) (61%), or waist circumference (62%).

The poll was conducted as part of CVS Health’s continued support of the American Heart Association’s Go Red For Women movement, which calls upon women to come together to take action in the fight against heart disease and stroke.

The results of the national survey of 1,141 adult women, conducted on behalf of CVS Health by Morning Consult, also found that heart-related conditions are prevalent among U.S. women, with more than one in three women (37%) saying they have conditions such as high cholesterol, hypertension (high blood pressure), diabetes, history of stroke or a heart defect.

According to the American Heart Association, heart disease is the leading killer among women, causing one in three deaths each year, or one woman every 80 seconds. Fortunately, about 80% of cardiovascular diseases can be prevented through education and lifestyle changes.

According to the survey results, 64% of women say pharmacists play a role in managing heart health, but few (15%) say they have asked their pharmacist questions about heart health or about the heart medications they are taking (36%). Of those who had questions about their heart medications, 70% say they found their pharmacist to be very helpful.

Research contactJoseph.Goode@CVSHealth.com

Most Americans want action on infrastructure

February 6, 2018

According to findings of a Morning Consult poll commissioned by the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), and released on February 5, an overwhelming majority (81%) of State of the Union (SOTU) viewers said it is important to them that Congress passes an infrastructure bill this year.

Additionally, 80% of the 2,209 adult viewers interviewed—including two-thirds (67%) of Democrats who watched President Trump’s address—said that congressional Democrats should work with Republicans in Congress to pass an infrastructure bill.

“This poll clearly shows that there is strong and bipartisan support for Congress to take on infrastructure now,” said AEM President Dennis Slater.“It is time for Washington to get to work and introduce legislation to make President Trump’s $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan a reality.”

SOTU viewers say they have high confidence in President Trump’s handling of infrastructure as an issue: 65% of those who viewed the State of the Union are very or somewhat confident in the president’s promise to rebuild U.S. infrastructure, including 59% of self-described independent voters.

But the biggest takeaway is that Americans of every political stripe want infrastructure in 2018. The poll found that 73% of Democrats and 75% of Independents want Congress to act on infrastructure this year. Overwhelming numbers of self-described Republicans (89%) and Tea Party supporters (88%) want Congress to pass an infrastructure bill, too.

“These results show why it is important for AEM and the broader business community to redouble our work to ensure Congress passes an infrastructure bill,” said Slater. “There is clearly broad and bipartisan desire for Congress to act. So let’s get the job done.”

Equipment manufacturers are ramping up their advocacy efforts this year to urge Congress to act on infrastructure. AEM’s grassroots advocacy campaign—I Make America—already has generated thousands of messages to President Trump and members of Congress. The campaign will travel around the country for a series of events at manufacturing facilities that will highlight the need for action on infrastructure.

AEM will mobilize the road construction industry at World of Asphalt, an industry trade show, in early March. In addition, AEM will continue to work through its Infrastructure Vision 2050 thought-leadership initiative to generate specific policy ideas and grow support for an eventual infrastructure bill.

Research contact: 1-414-272-0943