Posts tagged with "Joe Biden"

‘Fortune’ may be favoring just a few Democratic candidates

July 17, 2019

Eleven Democratic presidential candidates—nearly half of the whopping field of two dozen or more who have announced that they are running—spent more campaign cash than they raised during the second quarter of the year, according to new financial disclosures filed July 15  and posted by Politico.

Indeed fortune is smiling on just a favored few—among them, Pete Buttigieg ($24.8 million raised in Q2), Joe Biden ($21.5 million), Elizabeth Warren ($19.1 million), Bernie Sanders ($18.2 million), and Kamala Harris ($12 milion).

In the second tier are, Corey Booker ($4.5 million), Amy Klobuchar ($3.9 million), and Beto O’Rourke (3.6 million).

Eight contenders active in the spring limped forward with less than $1 million in cash on hand, and several top-tier contenders were already spending multiples of what their lower-profile competitors raised, the news outlet reported.

Already, California Representative Eric Swalwell has pulled out—acknowledging the problematic math facing a lower-tier contender. Swalwell’s campaign raised just more than $880,000 in the second quarter from donors and, like many of the others at the bottom of the pack, well outspent what it raised.

“We had the money in our account to continue to try to qualify for the upcoming debate,” Swalwell told Politico. “But we believed that even if we had done that, that when we looked at the September debate, it just wouldn’t add up.”

The financial squeeze is set to drastically shrink the lineup of Democratic contenders in the coming months, barring major shifts in momentum, as candidates grapple with the doldrums of summer fundraising and the high costs of staffing national campaigns and building donor lists big enough to qualify for future Democratic National Committee debates, Politico says.

The numbers also reveal the tremendous pressure on lesser-known candidates to make a splash in the debates at the end of this month — potentially the last chance some will have to attract a burst of support as their expenses pile up.

“This is the doomsday scenario for a lot of campaigns, where they’re grasping for air to keep their campaigns alive and to live another day,” said Andrew Feldman, a Democratic strategist in Washington. “You can’t build an organization. You can’t build an operation that turns enthusiasm into votes without having resources to do it.”

Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper spent a half-million dollars more than he raised in the second quarter, finishing June with $840,000 in his campaign account, Politico said.

Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro spent more than 80% of the amount he raised, despite a fundraising bounce following his highly regarded debate performance in the closing days of the fundraising period. He was left with about $1.1 million, the politico news outlet noted.

Jay Inslee, the governor of Washington, raised about $3.1 million in the second fundraising quarter; however, he reported spending $3.2 million and finished with only $1.2 million in the bank.

Some of these candidates need a miracle,” Matthew Littman, a Democratic strategist and former Joe Biden speechwriter who now supports Kamala Harris, told Politico. “It’s like if you’re a baseball team and you’re 15 games behind in mid-July, the odds are that you’re not making it to the playoffs.”

He said, “If you don’t have the money, you’re not going to have the infrastructure. And if you don’t have the money or the infrastructure, what are you going to do to break through? At this point, it’s just very, very tough.”

Could there be a miracle? It’s doubtful. “You’re not going to see a lot of people continuing to give to a person with no money left,” Feldman said.

Research contact@politico

Tried and true: Biden and Sanders lead Democratic field for 2020

February 26, 2018

Two years ahead of the 2020 New Hampshire presidential primary, most Democrats still are trying to decide whom to support—but Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren remain the early frontrunners, based on findings of The Granite State Poll, conducted among 523 likely voters by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, and released on February 15.

Interest in the 2020 primary has increased since the last poll was conducted in October 2017—and is considerably greater than it was at this point in the last two electoral cycles, the researchers said. More than half of New Hampshire voters (55%) say they are “extremely interested” in the primary; while just under one-quarter (25%) are “very interested,” 13% are “somewhat interested,” and 7% are”not interested” at all.

Most Democrats (81%) and Republicans (87%) say they definitely will vote in the primary, but only 58% of Independents say they will, without fail, cast a primary ballot.

After receiving the second-highest number of potential votes from respondents last October, Biden now has taken the lead over Sanders—with 35% of the vote versus 24%, respectively. Coming in third, with 15% is Elizabeth Warren; followed by Cory Booker (3%), Kirsten Gillibrand (2%), Kama Harris (1%), and Martin O’Malley (1%). At this point, 4% of prospective voters are looking for another candidate to support and 15% are undecided.

On the Republican side, six in ten voters (60%) say they will support Trump in the primary—an increase since October and comparable to the proportion of Democrats who said they planned on voting for Barack Obama (56%) in February 2010.

Research contact: andrew.smith@unh.edu

If Americans went to polls today, Sanders would beat Trump

November 16, 2017

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, Donald Trump would not be able to muster the votes to beat Democrats Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Michelle Obama or Elizabeth Warren, based on the results of a Zogby Analytics poll conducted in late October among 1,514 adult Americans.

In the battle between President Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the Independent candidate receives a narrow majority of  51% of voters, while Trump receives 40% of voters.

Sanders exceeds Trump with women (56% to 35%), younger voters age 18-24 (69% to 27%), 18-29 (64% to 30%), Walmart shoppers (47% to42%), voters age 50-64 (46% to 44%), Amazon shoppers (51% to 41%) and all minorities.

 However, Trump continues to beat Sanders among voters age 65+ (53% to 40%) NASCAR fans (47 to 46%), Catholic voters (49% to 43%), and rural voters (53% to36%).

Sanders does the most damage to Trump among men (both tied at46%), and beats him significantly with Independents (51% to 36%).

Joe Biden, the former U.S. vice president is not far behind—beating the current president by a margin of 50% to 40%. Biden, like Bernie Sanders, is favored among younger voters age 18-24 (74% to 18 %), voters age 18 to 29 (60% to 31%), women (57% to 34%), Independents (50% to 37%),and all minority groups.

Zogby commented, “President Trump struggles against Biden because Biden is able to tap into the president’s base of voters who frequently shop at Walmart (tied at 46%), voters age 50-64 (Biden leads 47% to 43%) and voters with no college education (Biden leads 47% to 42%).”

When respondents were polled about the chances of former First Lady Michelle Obama against Trump, the potential 2020 race tightens. Obama barely wins outside the margin of error.

“The reason for the tightening of the race between President Trump and Michelle Obama is that the former first lady does not make the same inroads that Sanders and Biden make with groups that supported the president, such as Independents (Obama leads 44% to 43%),  older voters age 50-64 (Trump leads 49% to 42%), and voters without a college degree (Trump leads 47% to 45%). However, among Amazon shoppers, Obama is in a close race with the president— leading 47% to 46%,” Zogby said.

Finally, Zogby’s polling of a potential showdown between Trump and Liberal favorite Senator Elizabeth Warren has fluctuated over the last few months, Zogby reports.

At one time, she led Trump by as many as 9 points, but the race has tightened in recent months. She currently leads the president by 2 points.

Like Michelle Obama Warren does well with the Democratic base of women, younger voters and minorities—but not as well as Biden, Sanders and Obama. She also does not cut into Trump’s lead among groups who supported Trump in 2016, mainly voters age 50-64 voter (Trump beats Warren 46% to 41%).

Among Independents, Trump and Warren both receive 40% of support, and with voters who do not have a college education, Trump bests Warren 46% to 40%. Warren also does not do as well with younger voters as do her other Democratic counterparts. Warren receives 53% of 18- to 29-year-old voters, while her Democratic rivals receive 60% and above. Warren does beat Trump among Amazon shoppers (Warren leads 47% to 44%) and keeps it close among Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 46% to 42%).

Research contact: chad@zogbyanalytics.com