Posts tagged with "Elon Musk"

From fantastical to familiar: Elon Musk portends new products—and Metaculus takes heed

January 15, 2019

Elon Musk is visionary and a pioneer. He is known for making bold predictions—and then, for going on to invent, design, and produce exactly what he has portended. In doing so, since 2002, he has become either the founder or co-founder of a slew of futuristic companies, from Neuralink to SpaceX to Tesla.

Hence, when Musk anticipates or forecasts a new development, most of us sit up and take notice—and if we are even smarter, we take notes.

For example, back in April 2017, Musk said that, by 2021, his brain-computer interface company Neuralink would release a viable product for treating brain injuries. Two years before that, he predicted that the electronic vehicle manufacturer Tesla would eventually grow as big as Apple—a company that was then worth $700 billion.

Now, to help us all keep track of one of one of his biggest claims, a website called Metaculus—built by a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants—has created an interactive timeline that tracks all of Musk’s predictions for the future.

According to the website Futurism, among the predictions already filed away by the Metaculus team: Musk’s hunch that we all live in a simulation; his conjecture that there’s a 70% likelihood that he’ll move to Mars; and his prophesy that SpaceX will shuttle a million colonists to Mars by 2120.

In the site’s new Musk timeline, Metaculus also includes predictions that are relevant to Musk’s companies. For instance, only 17% of Metaculus voters agree that we live in a simulation. And unfortunately for Musk, the community that thinks there’s only a 7% chance that Tesla will become the world’s largest car manufacturer by 2035.

So far, Futurism reports, the Metaculus community has been correct nine times and incorrect three times about predictions related to Musk; and the validity of another 13 predictions has yet to be determined.

The community voted that there was only a 3% chance that Musk would be sanctioned for tweeting about taking Tesla private, while his tweet actually prompted two federal investigations. The Metaculus community also incorrectly guessed that SpaceX would land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge by March 2016 and that Tesla would not be profitable in Q3 of 2018.

However, the community was right on the nose when it found a 9% probability that Elon Musk’s boy-sized submarines would prove useful in that whole cave rescue debacle.

Overall, Musk is more optimistic about the future of technology than the Metaculus community. For instance, Musk thinks there will one million Martian colonists by 2120. Metaculus voters say there’s just a 43% chance that humans will sustain any sort of “off-world presence” by 2100.

But you have got to dream it, before you do it, right? And with his boundless imagination and worldwide following, we would bet on Musk to help us live the dream.

Research contact: @DanRobitzski

Elon Musk’s Boring Company ditches plans for Sepulveda tunnel

November 29, 2018

The Boring Company—the brainchild of Tesla founder Elon Musk—has ditched its plans to build a massive, 2.7-mile subterranean tunnel under the Westside of Los Angeles.

However, the company intends to continue “play ball”—with a number of other projects in the works, including an underground tunnel called the Dugout Loop for fans going to games at Dodger Stadium.

In addition, The Boring Company still has a Test Tunnel in the works, which would run for about two miles from a parking lot at Musk’s SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, the company’s website said.

The abandoned Sepulveda tunnel—which had been intended to alleviate surface traffic on bumper-to-bumper California highways and streets—would have run from a Boring Company property on Sepulveda Boulevard to Washington Boulevard in Culver City, ABC News reported on November 27. The company came up with the idea for the project in 2017.

The company withdrew plans for the Sepulveda test tunnel this week, after several residents’ groups, led by the Brentwood Residents Coalition, brought suit against the City of Los Angeles over its plan to exempt the project from environmental reviews.

ABC local news in California (KABC) ran a statement provided by the Boring Company on November 27: “”The parties (The Boring Company, Brentwood Residents Coalition, Sunset Coalition, and Wendy-Sue Rosen) have amicably settled the matter of Brentwood Residents Coalition et al. v. City of Los Angeles (TB- The Boring Company). The Boring Company no longer seeks the development of the Sepulveda test tunnel and instead seeks to construct an operational tunnel at Dodger Stadium.”

Research contact: ama@businessinsider.com

Russia’s Kalashnikov Group unveils its challenge to Tesla, the CV1

August 27, 2018

The Kalashnikov Group—the Russian manufacturer of the infamous AK-47 assault rifle—has unveiled a prototype of a retro-style electric sedan that it claims can compete with the Tesla’s range, which is about 300 miles on one charge.

The electric vehicle (EV) —dubbed the CV1—was unveiled at an exhibition of Russian defense and civilian products just outside Moscow on August 23, CNBC reports. Kalashnikov said in a statement on its website that the design of its “revolutionary cutting-edge supercar” was inspired by a Soviet hatchback created in the 1970s.

According to the BBC, the company told reporters attending the expo that the car featured technology that would “let us stand in the ranks of global electric car producers such as Tesla,” adding, that, “when fully developed, the car [will] have a top speed several times higher than current electric vehicles produced … and [will] be able to travel 220 miles (350 km) on a single charge.”

Right now, the CV1 can reach 100 kilometers per hour (62 miles per hour) in six seconds.

Social media users quickly took to the company’s Facebook page to share their thoughts on Russia’s answer to Tesla, the BBC said, with some commenting on its “funny Zombie-like” design, while others praised its “cool” appearance.

“Your tanks are great, but it would be better if you stayed away from cars,” one user wrote. Another asked Elon Musk for his opinion on the prototype.

This is not the first EV prototype introduced in Russia. In August 2016, the Russian company AvtoVAZ presented its EV prototype for the Lada Vesta. This is the second electric car made by the Tolyatti-based  manufacturer. ElLada was the first, appearing as a prototype in 2012, and which was based on the popular Lada Kalina.

Research contact: @KalashnikovGS

Reputation poll: Apple needs polishing

March 14, 2018

The Apple and Google corporate brands have lost their elan—while Elon Musk’s Tesla is rocketing higher after launching a red Roadster into deep space and Amazon continues to ride high at number one in the Harris Poll Reputation Quotient for the third consecutive year.

Since 1999, the Reputation Quotient has quantified the reputation ratings for the 100 most visible U.S. companies, according to Harris.

Specifically, in a survey of about 26,000 U.S. adults, iPhone manufacturer Apple dropped to number 29 this year from its previous position at number five, and Google dropped from number eight to number 28. Apple had ranked at number two as recently as 2016.

John Gerzema, CEO of the Harris Poll, told Reuters in an interview that the likely reason Apple and Google plummeted was that they have not introduced as many attention-grabbing products as they did in past years, such as when Google rolled out Google Maps or Apple’s then-CEO Steve Jobs introduced the iPod, iPhone and iPad.

“Google and Apple, at this moment, are sort of in valleys,” Gerzema said. “We’re not quite to self-driving cars yet. We’re not yet seeing all the things in artificial intelligence they’re going to do.”

Meanwhile, Gerzema attributed Amazon’s continued high ranking to its expanding footprint in consumers’ lives, into areas such as groceries via its Whole Foods acquisition.

Elon Musk’s Tesla climbed from number nine to number three on the strength of sending its Roadster into space aboard a SpaceX booster—despite fleeting success delivering cars on time on Earth, Gerzema told Reuters.

He’s a modern-day carnival barker—it’s incredible,” Gerzema said of Musk. He noted that the Tesla CEO “is able to capture the public’s imagination when every news headline is incredibly negative. They’re filling a void of optimism.”

This year’s top ten rankings go as follows: Amazon, Wegman’s Food Markets, Tesla Motors, Chick-fil-A, Walt Disney, HEB Grocery, United Parcel Service, Publix Super Markets, Patagonia, and Aldi.

Last place went to Japanese auto parts supplier Takata, which distributed air bags that inflated with too much force—allegedly causing 22 deaths and hundreds of injuries, and prompting the largest recall in automotive history.

Research contact: @StephenNellis