Posts tagged with "Elizabeth Warren"

Born to run? Michael Bloomberg files paperwork to enter 2020 presidential race

November 11, 2019

Another billionaire–this one with abundant political experience—having held three consecutive terms as mayor of New York City—is about to join the 2020 presidential race, running for the nomination on the Democratic ticket.

Michael Bloomberg, who will be 78 next February—and who currently is the CEO and owner of Bloomberg LP, a global financial services firm— is expected to file paperwork this week designating himself as a candidate in Alabama, a state with an early filing deadline, people briefed on Bloomberg’s plans told The New York Times for a November 7 report.

Bloomberg and his advisers called a number of prominent Democrats on Thursday, November 7, to tell them he was seriously considering the race—including former Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the retired majority leader who remains a dominant power broker in the early caucus state.

The Times said that aides to Bloomberg also reached out to Governor Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island, the chair of the Democratic Governors Association.

Reid said in a brief interview with the news outlet that Bloomberg had not explicitly said he was running for president but that the implication of the call had been clear.

His entry into the race would cause a seismic disruption—but it might be welcomed by party leaders who are looking for a centrist politician with political seasoning who could stand up to Trump .

According to the Times report, with his immense personal wealth, centrist view, and close ties to the political establishment, Bloomberg would present an instantaneous threat to former Vice President Joe Biden, who has been struggling to raise money and is already defending his ideologically moderate base on multiple fronts.

Bloomberg initially bowed out of the 2020 race because of Biden’s apparent strength, but he has since grown skeptical that the top-polling Democrat is on track to win the nomination—and he does not see the two leading liberals in the race, Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, as strong candidates for the general election.

Howard Wolfson, a close adviser to. Bloomberg, said on Thursday that the former mayor has grown uneasy about the existing trajectory of the Democratic primary. He said Bloomberg viewed President Trump as an “unprecedented threat to our nation,” and noted the Democrat’s heavy spending in the 2018 midterm elections and this week’s off-year races in Virginia.

“We now need to finish the job and ensure that Trump is defeated—but Mike is increasingly concerned that the current field of candidates is not well positioned to do that,” Wolfson told The New York Times. “If Mike runs he would offer a new choice to Democrats built on a unique record running America’s biggest city, building a business from scratch, and taking on some of America’s toughest challenges as a high-impact philanthropist.”

Advisers to Mr. Bloomberg said he would likely make up his mind about the race within days, rather than weeks.

Research contact: @nytimes

Poll: Michelle Obama would be front-runner in NH Democratic primary race

October 17, 2019

We just can’t quit her: A Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll conducted between October 9 and October 13 has found that— if former FLOTUS Michelle Obama were to enter the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary race, she would take the lead among the current candidates.

According to a report by the Boston Herald, of the current presidential hopefuls, Elizabeth Warren (25%) and Joe Biden (24%) would lead in a statistical tie in the Granite State primary on February 11, 2020—with Bernie Sanders (22%) trailing just slightly behind.

“Today, the Democratic race is a statistical dead heat between Warren (25%), Biden (24%) and Sanders (22%),” pollster R. Kelly Myers wrote in his summary of the poll results.

“If Michelle Obama were to enter the race, it would change things dramatically,” pollster R. Kelly Myers wrote in his summary of the poll results. “Twenty-six percent of Democrats would vote for her, making her the new frontrunner. Under this scenario, Obama (26%) would lead Warren (20%), Biden (20%), and Sanders (15%).”

In doing so, Myers told the Boston Herald, Obama  would take away 4 percentage points from Warren, 4 points from Biden, and 7 points from Sanders.”

However, chances look slim that she will enter the arena: In an August interview with The National, Obama hardened her resolve about the impossibility of her running for the highest office in the nation—saying that there was “zero chance.”

“There are so many ways to improve this country and build a better world, and I keep doing plenty of them, from working with young people to helping families lead healthier lives,” she said. “But sitting behind the desk in the Oval Office will never be one of them. It’s just not for me.”

She also told talk show host Conan O’Brien back in March that eight years in the White House was “enough. It is enough. It’s time for new ideas … and people who are struggling in ways that, because of the nature of what we’ve done, we don’t do that anymore. We need fresh, real, clear eyes in this stuff.”

According to the Boston Herald, the FPU-Herald poll also found that there has been a 17 point drop in support for President Donald Trump from Republican voters going from 88% to 71% in just a month’s time.

Research contact: @bostonherald

Tried and true: Biden and Sanders lead Democratic field for 2020

February 26, 2018

Two years ahead of the 2020 New Hampshire presidential primary, most Democrats still are trying to decide whom to support—but Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren remain the early frontrunners, based on findings of The Granite State Poll, conducted among 523 likely voters by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, and released on February 15.

Interest in the 2020 primary has increased since the last poll was conducted in October 2017—and is considerably greater than it was at this point in the last two electoral cycles, the researchers said. More than half of New Hampshire voters (55%) say they are “extremely interested” in the primary; while just under one-quarter (25%) are “very interested,” 13% are “somewhat interested,” and 7% are”not interested” at all.

Most Democrats (81%) and Republicans (87%) say they definitely will vote in the primary, but only 58% of Independents say they will, without fail, cast a primary ballot.

After receiving the second-highest number of potential votes from respondents last October, Biden now has taken the lead over Sanders—with 35% of the vote versus 24%, respectively. Coming in third, with 15% is Elizabeth Warren; followed by Cory Booker (3%), Kirsten Gillibrand (2%), Kama Harris (1%), and Martin O’Malley (1%). At this point, 4% of prospective voters are looking for another candidate to support and 15% are undecided.

On the Republican side, six in ten voters (60%) say they will support Trump in the primary—an increase since October and comparable to the proportion of Democrats who said they planned on voting for Barack Obama (56%) in February 2010.

Research contact: andrew.smith@unh.edu

Biden takes modest lead for 2020

January 18, 2018

Former Vice President Joe Biden has taken a modest lead, with 26% support, over the field of potential Democratic presidential candidates for 2020, based on survey results released by RABA Research, The Hill reports.

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont), whose provocative and popular challenge to Hillary Clinton turned him into a progressive icon, is ensconced in second place, at 21%.

Coming in third? Oprah Winfrey, whose Golden Globes speech on January 7 sparked rumors that she might throw her hat in the ring, has taken 20% of the likely voters. She is followed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) at 18%—still a mainstream candidate, despite her falling poll numbers in her home state.

Fifteen percent of respondents said they either are unsure at this point or would pick someone else.

According to the report by The Hill, Biden also has the highest favorability rating in the field, at 76% positive. Winfrey and Sanders register at 67% favorable, while 58% of Democrats have a positive opinion of Warren.

The RABA online survey of 345 Democrats nationwide was conducted last week.

Research contact: brad@rabaresearch.com

If Americans went to polls today, Sanders would beat Trump

November 16, 2017

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, Donald Trump would not be able to muster the votes to beat Democrats Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Michelle Obama or Elizabeth Warren, based on the results of a Zogby Analytics poll conducted in late October among 1,514 adult Americans.

In the battle between President Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the Independent candidate receives a narrow majority of  51% of voters, while Trump receives 40% of voters.

Sanders exceeds Trump with women (56% to 35%), younger voters age 18-24 (69% to 27%), 18-29 (64% to 30%), Walmart shoppers (47% to42%), voters age 50-64 (46% to 44%), Amazon shoppers (51% to 41%) and all minorities.

 However, Trump continues to beat Sanders among voters age 65+ (53% to 40%) NASCAR fans (47 to 46%), Catholic voters (49% to 43%), and rural voters (53% to36%).

Sanders does the most damage to Trump among men (both tied at46%), and beats him significantly with Independents (51% to 36%).

Joe Biden, the former U.S. vice president is not far behind—beating the current president by a margin of 50% to 40%. Biden, like Bernie Sanders, is favored among younger voters age 18-24 (74% to 18 %), voters age 18 to 29 (60% to 31%), women (57% to 34%), Independents (50% to 37%),and all minority groups.

Zogby commented, “President Trump struggles against Biden because Biden is able to tap into the president’s base of voters who frequently shop at Walmart (tied at 46%), voters age 50-64 (Biden leads 47% to 43%) and voters with no college education (Biden leads 47% to 42%).”

When respondents were polled about the chances of former First Lady Michelle Obama against Trump, the potential 2020 race tightens. Obama barely wins outside the margin of error.

“The reason for the tightening of the race between President Trump and Michelle Obama is that the former first lady does not make the same inroads that Sanders and Biden make with groups that supported the president, such as Independents (Obama leads 44% to 43%),  older voters age 50-64 (Trump leads 49% to 42%), and voters without a college degree (Trump leads 47% to 45%). However, among Amazon shoppers, Obama is in a close race with the president— leading 47% to 46%,” Zogby said.

Finally, Zogby’s polling of a potential showdown between Trump and Liberal favorite Senator Elizabeth Warren has fluctuated over the last few months, Zogby reports.

At one time, she led Trump by as many as 9 points, but the race has tightened in recent months. She currently leads the president by 2 points.

Like Michelle Obama Warren does well with the Democratic base of women, younger voters and minorities—but not as well as Biden, Sanders and Obama. She also does not cut into Trump’s lead among groups who supported Trump in 2016, mainly voters age 50-64 voter (Trump beats Warren 46% to 41%).

Among Independents, Trump and Warren both receive 40% of support, and with voters who do not have a college education, Trump bests Warren 46% to 40%. Warren also does not do as well with younger voters as do her other Democratic counterparts. Warren receives 53% of 18- to 29-year-old voters, while her Democratic rivals receive 60% and above. Warren does beat Trump among Amazon shoppers (Warren leads 47% to 44%) and keeps it close among Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 46% to 42%).

Research contact: chad@zogbyanalytics.com