Posts tagged with "Democratic voters"

Gavin Newsom wins in a walk; Elder tanks in recall

September 16, 2021

With about 70% of the projected vote counted, 63.9% of Californians voted against recalling Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom (D), while 36.1% voted for it—almost identical to Joe Biden’s 63%-34% win in the state in 2020, NBC News reports.

So how did Newsom do it, especially compared with the successful gubernatorial recall from 2003?

One, California is much more Democratic—and less Republican—than it was 18 years ago, when voters ousted Democratic Governor Gray Davis (D) and replaced him with Arnold Schwarzenegger (R).

In 2003, California had 15 million registered voters. Of those, 6.7 million of them were registered Democrats (43.7%) and 5.4 million were registered Republicans (35.3%), with the rest Independent or other.

Now, California has 22 million registered voters, with 10.3 million of them Democrats (46.5%) and 5.3 million of them Republican (24.0%).

That’s right: Today there are 7 million more registered voters in California than there were back in 2003, but the number of Republicans has declined since then.

The second big reason that Newsom won has been the change inside the Republican Party over the last 18 years, in which Donald Trump is certainly no Ronald Reagan and in which Larry Elder is no Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Per the NBC News exit poll of last night’s race, 34% of all voters said they had a favorable view of Elder, versus 50% who said they had a negative view. (That’s compared with 55% in the exit poll who said they approved of Newsom’s job, versus 43% who disapproved.)

Over the last 30 years, successful and competitive GOP candidates (think Schwarzenegger, Pete Wilson, even Meg Whitman) supported abortion rights and came (more or less) from the moderate wing of the GOP.

That doesn’t describe Elder, who opposes abortion rights and comes from the conservative wing of the party.

Outside of those two macro-trends in California, there’s a tactical reason why Newsom won so easily.He and his allies leaned heavily into masks and vaccines—especially as a way to motivate Democratic voters.

Per the exit poll, 63% of voters in the recall said getting the COVID vaccine is a public health responsibility, versus 34%, who said it’s a personal choice—which almost exactly matches the No-Yes margin on Tuesday night, September 14.

And on masks, 70% of voters said they supported California requiring children to wear masks in school, and they voted against the recall by an 80%-to-20% margin, according to the exit poll.

Research contact: @NBCNews

Proud Boys deny sending threatening emails to Democratic voters in multiple states

October 22, 2020

Law enforcement officials have been notified that voters in multiple states have received personalized emails purporting to be from the Proud Boys—a far-right, neo-fascist white supremacist group. The messaging is filled with intimidating threats aimed at Democrats, if they do not change their vote to Republican, The Hill reports.

CNN and The Washington Post first reported that voters in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Alaska, and Florida all said they received threatening emails warning them to vote for President Donald Trump in the upcoming election, adding that the mysterious sender claimed to have access to voter history and “will come after you” should they fail to vote for the president.

“You will vote for Trump on Election Day or we will come after you,” reads one email obtained by the Post,. Dozens were reportedly sent, including more than 180 to students, faculty and staff of the University of Florida, a school spokesperson told CNN.

Chris Krebs, the director of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency tweeted that the agency was “aware of threatening emails with misleading info about the secrecy of your vote.”

“This is what we mean by not falling for sensational and unverified claims. The last line of defense in election security is you—the American voter. So be prepared, be a smart consumer and sharer of information. Vote with confidence,” added Chris Krebs.

Elections officials in Alaska and Florida confirmed to CNN that they were aware of the emails, with Alaska’s Division of Elections telling the network that federal authorities had been alerted. Representatives with elections boards in Pennsylvania and Arizona did not immediately return The Hill’s requests for comment. A spokesperson for the FBI’s field office in Anchorage also did not immediately return a request for comment from the Post.

The leader of the Proud Boys, Enrique Tarrio, told USA Today and CNN in a statement that his group was not responsible for the emails, which appeared to have been sent from an email address affiliated with the group but may have been the result of spoofing software, one expert told CNN.

“No, it wasn’t us. The people [who sent the emails] used a spoofing email that pretended to be us,” Tarrio said. “Whoever did this should be in prison for a long time.”

“We have spoken to the FBI and are working with them. I hope whoever did this is arrested for voter intimidation and for maliciously impersonating our group,” he added.

Trump recently faced criticism after he demurred follow his prompting by Fox News’s Chris Wallace to disavow the group during the first presidential debate between him and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

“Stand back and stand by,” Trump said during the contentious debate.

Research contact: @thehil

Editor’s note: According to multiple sources, U.S. officials on Wednesday night accused Iran of targeting American voters with faked but menacing emails and warned that both Iran and Russia had obtained voter data that could be used to endanger the upcoming election.