If Americans went to polls today, Sanders would beat Trump

November 16, 2017

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, Donald Trump would not be able to muster the votes to beat Democrats Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Michelle Obama or Elizabeth Warren, based on the results of a Zogby Analytics poll conducted in late October among 1,514 adult Americans.

In the battle between President Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the Independent candidate receives a narrow majority of  51% of voters, while Trump receives 40% of voters.

Sanders exceeds Trump with women (56% to 35%), younger voters age 18-24 (69% to 27%), 18-29 (64% to 30%), Walmart shoppers (47% to42%), voters age 50-64 (46% to 44%), Amazon shoppers (51% to 41%) and all minorities.

 However, Trump continues to beat Sanders among voters age 65+ (53% to 40%) NASCAR fans (47 to 46%), Catholic voters (49% to 43%), and rural voters (53% to36%).

Sanders does the most damage to Trump among men (both tied at46%), and beats him significantly with Independents (51% to 36%).

Joe Biden, the former U.S. vice president is not far behind—beating the current president by a margin of 50% to 40%. Biden, like Bernie Sanders, is favored among younger voters age 18-24 (74% to 18 %), voters age 18 to 29 (60% to 31%), women (57% to 34%), Independents (50% to 37%),and all minority groups.

Zogby commented, “President Trump struggles against Biden because Biden is able to tap into the president’s base of voters who frequently shop at Walmart (tied at 46%), voters age 50-64 (Biden leads 47% to 43%) and voters with no college education (Biden leads 47% to 42%).”

When respondents were polled about the chances of former First Lady Michelle Obama against Trump, the potential 2020 race tightens. Obama barely wins outside the margin of error.

“The reason for the tightening of the race between President Trump and Michelle Obama is that the former first lady does not make the same inroads that Sanders and Biden make with groups that supported the president, such as Independents (Obama leads 44% to 43%),  older voters age 50-64 (Trump leads 49% to 42%), and voters without a college degree (Trump leads 47% to 45%). However, among Amazon shoppers, Obama is in a close race with the president— leading 47% to 46%,” Zogby said.

Finally, Zogby’s polling of a potential showdown between Trump and Liberal favorite Senator Elizabeth Warren has fluctuated over the last few months, Zogby reports.

At one time, she led Trump by as many as 9 points, but the race has tightened in recent months. She currently leads the president by 2 points.

Like Michelle Obama Warren does well with the Democratic base of women, younger voters and minorities—but not as well as Biden, Sanders and Obama. She also does not cut into Trump’s lead among groups who supported Trump in 2016, mainly voters age 50-64 voter (Trump beats Warren 46% to 41%).

Among Independents, Trump and Warren both receive 40% of support, and with voters who do not have a college education, Trump bests Warren 46% to 40%. Warren also does not do as well with younger voters as do her other Democratic counterparts. Warren receives 53% of 18- to 29-year-old voters, while her Democratic rivals receive 60% and above. Warren does beat Trump among Amazon shoppers (Warren leads 47% to 44%) and keeps it close among Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 46% to 42%).

Research contact: chad@zogbyanalytics.com

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