GOP falters in suburban districts

March 22, 2018

Americans now favor Democratic control of Congress by 10 points—50% to 40%—up 6 points from last month, with the GOP losing support among key voter groups, based on findings of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on March 18.

The numbers, combined with results of last week’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district, suggest “a very rocky midterm season may await Republicans this fall.” According to the pollsters.

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll

Several key segments of the electorate that the GOP targets to push the party over the top are showing declining support—with support among white voters down 3 points to 47% since January; backing in GOP districts down 6 points to 46%; enthusiasm among suburbanites down 7 points to 43%; and endorsement among white-collar workers down by 9 points to 38%.

There was a huge 13-point decline among 18- to 34-year-old voters to,  29%.

NBC notes, “Those changes look particularly concerning for Republicans when you compare them to results from past elections. In the 2014 midterms, for instance, Republicans won white voters by a large margin, 60% to 38%. And that year, the GOP won the vote out of the suburbs, 52% to 43%.”

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll

On the danger list, the pollsters believe: Republican districts that were already seen as competitive in suburban/urban areas around Atlanta, Detroit, Cleveland, the Twin Cities, New York City—even Omaha, Nebraska.

Research contact: @Dchinni

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